Dumb money: investor sentiment from various sources

by on March 22, 2010

Check out Investor Sentiment Going Forward from The Technical Take.  While I’m less interested in the actual readings themselves, the post has good explanations of its own indices to get a handle on what company insiders and stupidinvestors think of this market and then use this to prognosticate what’s happening next.

The post describes a “Dumb Money” indicator which is made up of 4 different groups of investors (typically wrong in their market timing):

  1. Investor Intelligence
  2. Market Vane
  3. American Association of Individual Investors
  4. Put call ratio

For those wondering:

The “Dumb Money” indicator has turned bullish to an extreme degree.

The Technical Take also includes a “Smart Money” indicator culled from the following data:

  1. public to specialist short ratio
  2. specialist short to total short ratio
  3. SP100 option traders

(This one’s neutral, FWIW).

The post also mentions the InsiderScore “entire market” readings and looks at the total sum of assets in Rydex bullish-oriented equity funds and divides them by the sum of all assets in Rydex funds to get a handle on bullishness.

According to the post:

1) “Sellers Continue Domination”; 2) “Our Weekly Score moved ever so slightly off its three-year low”; 3) “Insider selling at small- and mid-cap companies increased”.

I continue to be amazed at how much information is available for investors online. Sentiment indicators (read my recent article on hedge funds trading buzz) are one of just many tools that investors can incorporate into their investing to become more accurate and profitable going forward.

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