Testosterone, EMH, and Sharpe Ratios

by on November 25, 2009

Reuters is out with an article entitled Hormones, incentive, experience make best traders.  The article reviewed a recent study entitled A Note on Trader Sharpe Ratio by John Coates, a Cambridge research fellow in neuroscience who previously worked on Wall Street.

The study analyzed the effects of hormones and experience on the trading performance of 53 English traders averaging 29 years old.  These prop traders are incentivized not with monetary bonuses, but with year-end stock gifts based on their performance.  Importantly, the study uses the Sharpe Ratio as a measure of risk-adjusted performance over time.

Couple of takeaways from the article:

  • Another stab at EMH: By looking at the effects of work experience Sharpe and Experienceand performance, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio, the study marks another reference point at the weakness of the Efficient Market Hypothesis to account for consistent, market-beating gains.  The researchers compared traders’ Sharpe ratios with the Sharpe ratio of the DAX German stock market index and found that more experienced traders scored significantly higher — an average of 1.02 compared with the Dax’s average 0.53.
  • Practice makes profits: The study found that Sharpe Ratios actually went up over time which signifies that traders were getting better at managing risk and squeezing out returns.  According to the study: “Our data thus suggest that Sharpe Ratios increase over time because traders learn to make more money per unit of risk they take.”
  • Hormones and trading: Whether self-selected or improved via biology,   testosterone plays an important part in the work of financial traders, with evidence that male traders will make much more aggressive trades on days when their testosterone is high.  According to the study, successful traders “are more profitable and survive longer in the markets, as was previously reported, but we now find the effect is largely mediated through a higher tolerance for risk”.

In the words of its co-author, this study demonstrates that “in trading, as in sports, biology needs the guiding hand of experience.”  It’s an interesting look at the interaction of experience, biology, and investment outperformance.

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Morningstar announced yesterday its nominees for a new award Morningstar Fund Manager of the Decade.

According to Morningstar:

The Manager of the Decade award is not just about returns. We consider the risks assumed to achieve those results and take into account the strength of the manager, strategy, and firm’s stewardship. We also think it’s a greater feat to make a lot of money for a lot of people than to earn sky-high returns on a tiny pool of assets, so asset size factors in.

Morningstar created 3 strategies for the award:

  1. Domestic
  2. Foreign
  3. Fixed Income

The usual cast of characters made finalists.  So, you’ll see names like Fairholme’s Bruce Berkowitz, Don Yacktman, Fidelity’s Low Priced Stock Manager Joel Tillinghast, and PIMCO’s Bill Gross.

This is a great list and in spite of the terrible decade we’ve experienced as investors, there are some pretty impressive numbers from 1/2000 until now.  Many of the funds still put up double digit average annual returns.

Investors can use this list and bet that previous performance turns into future performance.  Or, they do it themselves and mimic the every move of these star asset managers.  Investors can tap the SEC’s IDEA database to read monthly regulatory filings of these investment advisors.  Through these disclosures, investors can piggyback the investment returns of the Morningstar finalists.

More enterprising investors may want to head over to Alpha Clone, a site developed to make piggybacking a whole lot easier.  For more on AC, check out my piece, Alpha Clone: The Cure to Investor Insanity.  AC users can not only track changes in thousands of professionally managed portfolios but they can backtest results of how best to mimic these investors.

[HT: The Reformed Broker]

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narcisseDon Narcisse was the Warren Buffett of Canadian Football.   His performance numbers over a long career speak for themselves.  A small receiver (5′9″), Narcisse began his career in the CFL with the Saskatchewan Roughriders in 1987 after being cut from the St Louis Cardinals.  The rest was history.

Here are some of his stats after a 13-year football career:

  • 216 games, 919 receptions, 75 touchdowns, 12,366 yards
  • 8 – 1000+ yard seasons, 2 – 900+ yards seasons
  • 34 – 100+ yard games
  • Led CFL in receptions (123) – 1995

With numbers like this, he is first, second, or third for most all-time records in the CFL for receivers.

Know for his hard work and  sure hands, Narcisse was notoriously frugal when it came to spending:

Former Rider kicker Dave Ridgway said the man who wore No. 80 took great pride in being parsimonious, saving his meal money while other players spent it on the road.

If the players received $150 per diem for a road trip, “anyone guessing Narco has anything less than 108 bucks remaining in his pocket is going to lose the bet,” Ridgway wrote in his 1995 biography, Robokicker.

“When Don Narcisse decides to retire, he will leave the CFL with nearly every dollar he made playing football.”

Narcisse knew the value of the dollar (Canadian) and set out to preserve whatever wealth he had amassed during his prolific career — which makes the ending of the story all the more heartbreaking.

Not unlike academics or artists, professional athletes have high earnings power for just a short amount of time: most, in fact, do their best work before the age of 27.  Many make enough money that they should never have to work again.   Others, though, as I wrote in a previous piece, blow through their millions in a few years with little hope for a job or a future.

Narcisse wanted to preserve what he had worked so hard to secure: his financial security.  Teammates were astounded to learn this week that the famous receiver lost his $65,000 football pension to what police now say was a complex investment scam involving offshore accounts and promises of fantastic financial payoff.  So scrupulous in his work ethic and money management, Narcisse fell prey to the worst type of scoundrel: a fellow teammate.

According to reports, in 2003, Narcisse hooked up with former teammate,  Ventson Donelson, who introduced him to Graham Dorn, a promoter with Capital Alternatives of Calgary, which was eventually renamed The Institute for Financial Learning, or IFFL.

From the looks of it, the IFFL was certainly not an innocuous educational investment club; rather, it was a multilevel marketing scheme that promised outrageous returns to its cult-like followers.  This September, Ponzimonium broke out across North America with Madoff and Stanford and the founders of the IFFL were indicted on multiple accounts of financial fraud — estimated at up to $400 million.

With promises of financial freedom through education and complicated tax schemes, the IFFL found a welcome audience in professional athletes, many of whom were struggling with retirement — emotionally, physically, and financially.  According to the National Football League Player Association, 78 pro players over a three-year period this decade were defrauded more than $42 million by financial advisers.  I’m sure the numbers haven’t improved over the past 2 years.

Why?  Why are professional athletes prone to getting swindled?

I posit 5 reasons:

  • Unrealistic expectations: Athletes are gods on the field, doing things with their bodies that normal humans can’t.  The thing is, when they re-enter “real life”, frequently having run through large sums of money, they struggle with making a living and planning for the future.  This shock of reality hits athletes hard.   People in desperation want to believe there is an easy way out — a magic bullet.  Not coincidentally, the IFFL’s main product was called Midas.  When U.S. treasury bonds are paying close to 0%, it’s outlandish to believe that you could — with little risk — expect high double digit returns in such an environment.  The defrauded were sold a false dream and because of their desperation believed that it could be true.  Believing in an investment plan is not a substitute for a safe strategy.
  • Lack of financial experience and education: Many professional football players complain that they lack the tools to adequately manage their financial estates.  They don’t like having to rely upon professional financial advisors — many of whom are out to fleece them.  Knowledge — and the independence that follows — is really central to the story here.  The IFFL didn’t claim to sell anything or promote investments — it sold knowledge and found sufficient demand in the athlete investment community.  Athletes need access to objective sources of education and information and must be able to read between the lines to decide whether something is objective or subjective — just like all investors must do.  Mutual funds charge fees — that doesn’t mean that they’re bad.  Athletes must understand how  fees affect their overall performance and whether expected returns justify them.
  • Advisor selection: Granted, just because someone is a professional doesn’t mean he’s trustworthy.  What’s more important is to surround yourself — whatever field you’re in — with sound, responsible advice.  The IFFL worked as a scam because everyone was in on it.  Friends recommended it to friends.  No true friend/adviser should have promoted the IFFL to Narcisse knowing his demeanor and attention to financial detail.  Unlike on the field, where players frequently give selflessly to help one another, real life means that everyone is out to make a buck.  It’s important to understand everyone’s motivations when analyzing whether given advice is trustworthy or it’s just a sales technique.
  • Liquidity also has a value: Narcisse began to sense something wasn’t kosher when he asked for his money back and was given the run around.  Complicated real estate transactions tie up investment money for years.  While plain vanilla government bonds return very little on investor money, they’re easily liquidated into cash.  Investments must be assessed using liquidity guidelines.  Real estate and small business must be looked at with this in mind.
  • Waiting until retirement to address financial planning: Take a page from Chad Ochocinco’s book (or, more aptly, from his app): he’s thinking about monetizing his skills and reputation during his career.  This helps to optimize earnings potential during an athlete’s career and puts the athlete in the right frame of mind to begin a second career, post-football.  Do I care enough to pay $5 to follow all of 86’s off-field exploits?  Nah, but someone  does.

Narcisse’s is a heart-breaking story because he did everything right financially during his career.  Unfortunately, he made one bad decision that cost him dearly.  Professional athletes can’t afford to get bad advice anymore: not from friends or from sleazy professionals.

I like this story about responsible financial planning within the NFL. The article quotes cornerback, Dre Bly:

“My retirement goal is to be able to maintain my current standard of living and send my kids to college without having to work again,” Bly says. “I’m looking for safer returns that I can count on being there when my career is over.”

Unfortunately, there aren’t a whole lot of ways to get there other than by saving and investing safely.  Players who try to find a more sexy, aggressive way of doing it are, unfortunately, going to end up like Narcisse — in a Ponzipalooza smack down.

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Murdoch on Sky News on the WSJ.com

November 10, 2009

Interesting interview with Rupert Murdoch himself on the WSJ.com, Google, and premium content.
Here’s TechCrunch’s take on what Murdoch has to say:
Murdoch told his own Sky News that he might start blocking Google and other search engines from giving searchers full access to articles on the Wall Street Journal’s website, WSJ.com. Asked whether he realized that [...]

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Insiders vs. Outsiders: Why Raj Rajaratnam is no Martha Stewart

October 26, 2009

Martha Stewart was a billionaire in 2001.  She floated her own media firm, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, on the New York Stock Exchange in 1999 and witnessed her stock price double just on the first day it began trading.  Her T.V. shows combined with magazines and a home furnishing line were just hitting their stride.  [...]

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kaChing goes kaching with new money management fxn

October 19, 2009

kaChing announced yesterday (rather quietly — strange) that they have indeed — after months of discussion — launched their investment management arm.  What that means is that investors can open up an Interactive Brokers account to mirror the activities of portfolio managers on kaChing.
From board member Andy Radcliffe who posted on kaching’s blog yesterday:
We now [...]

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Where the Wild Things aren’t: mass affluent leaving brokers

October 15, 2009

Interesting data regarding mass affluent investors coming out of the Spectrem Group, as reported by Investment News today.
According to the study:
only 22% of mass affluent investors — those with a net worth of $100,000 to $1 million — now rely on a broker as their primary financial adviser, down from 30% just one year ago.
Independent [...]

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With BusinessWeek, Bloomberg takes aim at Dow Jones

October 14, 2009

Everyone’s out reporting that Bloomberg, after being rumored as a suitor to pick up trouble biz mag, BusinessWeek, actually closed the deal for a rumored $5 million, an assumption of debt that amounts to over $30 million and a burn-rate of over $800,000/week.
Couple of salient points here:

Integration issues: Bloomberg has grown with a “build, not [...]

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Broker/Dealers receive wrist slap for helping hedgies skirt taxes

October 12, 2009

Bloomberg reports today that Citigroup agreed to pay $600,000 in fines related to a charge Finra brought against the bank.  The regulator claimed that Citigroup didn’t properly supervise specific transactions of foreign clients to skirt paying taxes on dividend payments.
According to the Bloomberg article:
Investigators at the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which polices almost 4,800 U.S. [...]

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